Thursday, February 3, 2011

Good News About the Region - THE GOOD NEWS SURROUNDING THE DAYTON REGION

Information provided by David McDonald Author of "Saving America's Cities"

There is a tremendous amount of good news about the Dayton Region. Some of this news you have heard before. Some of it you likely have not heard. I have completed my own demographic analysis on cities for approximately thirty years, and have over 4,000 pages of demographic reference material in my office. Hopefully you will find this information interesting. Please feel free to update the information and return to me.

THE DAYTON REGION METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA

The number of people in the Dayton MSA is a very important statistic, and one that requires some explanation. Most demographic books copy each other on their numbers. Most of the time these resource manuals are within a close tolerance of being right. I do not know why the numbers for Dayton are so badly in error with these demographic companies, but they are. All of the demographic reference manuals that I can find list the Dayton Region (Dayton MSA) at around 839,000 people. This is grossly in error. A conservative estimate for the Dayton Region Trade Area (MSA) is 1.2 million people. I could make a case for 1.3 million, but that would be slightly stretching it. I have heard some groups within our region use this same number (1.2 Million) and I have heard some use significantly more. There is no justification for more, but 1.2 million is an extremely significant and positive number for us. The Dayton Region is all or parts of 7 counties and the breakdown is listed below.

% OF COUNTY COUNTY/
POPULATION IN POPULATION/
COUNTY DAYTON REGION IN THE
COUNTY POPULATION TRADING AREA DAYTON REGION

Montgomery 536,445/ 100%/ 536,445
Greene 156,003/ 100%/ 156,003
Miami 102,854/ 100%/ 102,854
Clark 141,439/ 90%/ 127,295
Champaign 40,205/ 60%/ 24,123
Darke 52,214/ 60%/ 31,328
Preble 42,184/ 70%/ 29,529
Shelby 49,303/ 70%/ 34,512
Warren 216,348/ 30%/ 64,904
Butler 359,442/ 25%/ 89,860
Clinton 44,359/ 15%/ 6,653


APPROXIMATE TOTAL DAYTON REGION POPULATION 1,203,506

Notes: Every town and borough in the nation has a Metropolitan Statistical Area that they identify with. (ie: a large town with plenty of good opportunities for shopping, dining, the arts, etc.) The boundaries could relate to rivers, mountains or state lines. However, the majority of the time it relates to factors as simple as “how far is it to the closest big city where I can shop”. This is not only determined by distance but also by road systems, and thus ease of travel. Many of the counties listed above are split, from a shopping standpoint for reasons mentioned above and thus you have percentages of the populations less than 100% shopping in Dayton. The loss in these counties is predominantly to Cincinnati and Columbus.

How do we relate to the significance of 1.2 million people in the Dayton Region MSA? There are 20 states in the nation that do not have a single Metropolitan Statistical Area as large as that of the Dayton Region. Eight states have only one MSA that roughly equals that of the Dayton Region. Therefore, a total of 28 states (56% of the states in the US) cannot equal or beat what we have right here in the Dayton Region. Another 15 states only have one MSA that exceeds that of the Dayton Region. Ohio is the 7th largest state in the nation, and Dayton is surrounded by four larger MSA’s: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus and Indianapolis. However, this should not detract from the fact that the Dayton MSA is the 46th largest MSA in the nation (Note: Depending on varying assessments, you could technically rate Dayton as being #45 or #47).

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